Gold / GLD

Last night I saw some curious action in the after hours market in gold futures (YG), I asked you to hold on because I wanted to look closer and maybe even say," I like GLD even in AH", instead I looked and said, "I think GLD will get there, but it's not there yet".

Here's what I'm talking about and with the race across the globe to devalue currencies, gold is going to be the only real hedge and gold's behavior recently has changed as the race to devalue currencies has recently heated up.

 Technically, GLD did what traders expect and broke below this triangle, they now expect it to make a new leg lower, but I think it's most probably gathering energy here to put in a near term base and will likely make a move back above the triangle, of course there's the high probability of a slip below support before that happens to get shorts committed, which only helps an upside move as they are squeezed.


 This is a short term 3C 1 min chart of GLD, note the gap up this morning and how it saw immediate distribution on a 1 min chart, that's enough to send it down intraday, but it's not real distribution/heavy selling, in fact as it moved down it started being accumulated, so in my view they are keeping GLD in a range where they can accumulate it cheap and that's why I said I didn't think it was ready last night.

 This is more or less the range and the accumulation should take place at the lower end, I think GLD may have a little more time in this range or in a "U" shape pattern, but I do like the idea of GLD as a probable long even though I hate trading the asset itself.

 I think the move in GLD may be either newer or picking up more urgency lately, her it looks like it was intentionally knocked out of the triangle as you can see negative divergences sending it lower and positives forming at the lower levels, everyone wants to buy low, Wall St. demands it.

 This is a longer term look, it's kind of sloppy, but I'm not convinced that first positive divergence has anything to do with this one, the currency wars weren't that hot back in December.

 Looking at Gold Futures, YG, the 1 min chart looks like slop, nothing there really, but as I always say, "When in doubt, go to the more important, longer term charts that show the real trend".


 At 5 min the positive divergence becomes more clear.

 At 15 min it's leading positive

At 1 hour, it fits almost exactly with the point in which I became very centered on currencies and the debasement of them as the pivot for the market, a leading positive divergence so I do think gold is moving higher, it's just a matter of how big of a position do they intend to build?