Thursday, February 14, 2013

The Open & the Close, who can forget about Currencies?

There are two things that matter for us for practical purposes, the open and the close, what happens between is where we make tactical moves largely based on the strategic environment dictated by the open and the close.

 The SPY gave us the open I had been looking for in yesterday's close, it may sound a little silly, but the open at the red trendline is in a great spot, if we can just get a close below the red trendline, it changes things, how much below the red line determines how much it changes things, it could be a lot.

 The QQQ, since it has been so flat is even better, today's open is where I was hoping to see yesterday's close, a close below today's open changes the outlook for the Q's, almost any close below the open.


Currencies, speaking of change...
 The daily EUR/USD, at "A" we have the summer rally, really off the June 4th lows. At "B" we have the November rally, really off the Nov. 16th lows.

 Since February though and today's Eurozone GDPs, we now have a clear downtrend in the pair that is so closely correlated with the stock market.

The EUR/JPY is growing more negative, depending on where the pair ends up later today, it too may have a clear downtrend, it just needs a new low below the 11th.

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