Opening Indications

Opening trade is always tricky and deceptive, this is why I and most professional traders don't get too involved in the market before 11 a.m. after the initial game playing (stop running, order tagging, etc from retail limit orders) is over.

If I had to guess, I'd say there was some small inventory picked up yesterday around 2:45-3 p.m., just enough to move the market off lows and toward VWAP (market maker type inventory) where institutional sales can be made as we saw yesterday. The Q's and NASDAQ futures look a little less certain, but I'm guessing they will make a break higher, although there's a symmetrical triangle in the Q's set up so there may be some game playing around that with a possible Crazy Ivan shakeout intraday.

SPY

 This is yesterday-present SPY 5 min chart, distribution as seen yesterday in ES at the opening highs, in the afternoon and toward the close, but as you can see around 3 pm there's a positive divergence, that's enough to try to get ES's VWAP up to the upper standard deviation to sell there, I guess they didn't expect the GDPs this morning to be so bad and EUR/USD to plunge 100 pips. In any case, if the market maker/specialist picked up that inventory, they aren't taking a loss on it and they'll push as far as they can to dump it.

 SPY 1 min fro yesterday-present, note the positive divergence intraday right off the opening gap down, again, those middle men aren't going to want to take a loss on inventory picked up just to move institutional orders up to VWAP.

 SPY 1 min close up of yesterday's close through present, again a positive intraday divergence right off the open, some slight profit taking at the red arrow as we near the gap.

 This is ES / S7P Futures, so you can see how close we are the the upper standard deviation of VWAP, I think there was some ES accumulation in pre-market as you'll see below at the white box around 6 a.m.

 ES/SPX futures with 3C showing a positive divergence at the 6 a.m. area, a little distribution, but largely in line so I think we are heading to the upper channel of VWAP.

 DIA is the same theme, 1 min intraday accumulation around 3 pm yesterday and more or less in line right now in to the gap.

 IWM 5 min doesn't look the same, it seems there's more distribution here

 IWM 2 min intraday showing distribution at the highs yesterday and this morning.

 QQQ has the same theme as most of the market, small accumulation at 3 pm yesterday, there's a current leading positive, not big though and a triangle in the yellow box. Watch for a move below and then above the triangle.

QQQ 2 min showing the same distribution as ES at the same time yesterday, but on the open slightly more positive than yesterday,

I'll check AAPL and see if it will help lift the Q's.