Monday, March 25, 2013

AMZN

AMZN April $255 Calls are still open and will remain so for the time being, this however is a piggy back ride to what I think will be the bigger trade, which is AMZN short, I prefer equity short, but I suppose a longer term put could work, it just wouldn't be my choice.

As you may recall, this is all about a gap in the $270-$274 area.

I don't see anything really exciting today other than the fact that some important charts for the call position are holding up.

 The 30 min chart is kind of almost like the "Swing" signal for AMZN right now, it went negative and AMZN gaped lower and headed lower, it stayed in line with price and then went positive and the decline stopped and a lateral trend started. The bigger the lateral trend, the more potential accumulation for a move to the upside, the 30 min chart did not falter today, it has held up well and that is probably the most exciting thing I see at the moment.

 The 5 min chart did a good job in identifying the double bottom (not in the true sense, but let's call it support) and then going positive late Friday, gapping up in to distribution like most of the market and has been in line since, that is a far sight better than a leading negative divergence which it "could" have had right now.

 Even the 2 min chart is positive, AMZN moves , the open today is negative and it is in line the rest of the day, the 2 min chart is fast, it gives more detail and it's not even showing small negative divergences right now, it's in line and that's better than I would have expected considering the market's temperament right now.

 Ultimately though, I'm looking for the short set up, the 11/16 lows were accumulated, this is the same on virtually 90% of charts out there as 11/16 was the start of a new cycle, but since the longer term 3C chart has been negative as it should be as a cycle progresses, the gap just gives a better entry, lower risk and the trade comes to us, but one thing at a time.

The 5 min/50 bar average a lot of momentum/day traders use is showing AMZN holding the average, I doubt this is coincidence so this may be an average and timeframe you want to keep an eye on if you are long AMZN on a short term trade.


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