SPY Update

I'm not going to make this in to any bigger of a deal than it is or pretend this is the high probability trade that I'd want to be in, I'm just going to give it to you like it is, it's not really inspiring, but it's also not really scary.

After a quick look, I'm not excited about the QQQ charts (meaning I don't think they look bullish), the NASDAQ futures 5 min chart looks good as does the ES 5 min chart I showed you in the last post, and remember it had been the 5 min futures charts that gave us that 14:1 winning streak on call/put positions. The R2K 5 min chart is positive, not as much as ES and NQ though. The IWM short term charts look decent, better than the Q's. Ironically, the DIA charts finished out the day looking the best by far, as in looking good enough that I'd say we are up tomorrow, whether that is early in the day or on the close I can't say, but the DOW took a lot of damage, regrouped today and put together a solid set of short term positive divergences which I would have no problem holding overnight.

As for levers, HYG finished the day in the off position, the earlier support it was giving to the SPY arbitrage completely failed and it closed at the lows of the day. There was nothing special about the Euro, it slightly underperformed in to the close, the $USD did manage to push higher and somehow the SPX held some ground, this chart is worth seeing.

 USD made a marginal new high on the day, the SPX DID NOT make a new low so there's some strength in there somewhere.

If you think what's going on with the carry currencies, think again, look what happened when the Yen as well as the EUR/JPY and USD/JPY carry pairs stemmed the gains in the Yen, the market bottomed.

HY credit closed near the lows of the day, but I'd expect that regardless of what the more liquid HY Corp. Credit did as HY credit doesn't have the liquidity, last week we saw what some selling in HY credit could do when 2 days of selling took out all of 2013's gains and then some, that move was so deep because the instrument is so illiquid.

Commodities broadly speaking closed near the lows of the day, copper did a little better.

After failing at 1 pm as VIX futures were obviously being used to help slow the bleeding in the market, they saw some 2 pm accumulation intraday, it didn't go beyond the 1 min chart and really didn't do much for VXX, which is otherwise in line to the 5 min chart (leaving room for the market to move higher if it can), but at 10 min it is as positive as you could ask for so that's the theme of the thin veneer and rot beneath, today the rot got the better of the market for a bit, but I think the market can still make that SPX new high, it's just with the VXX 10 min chart positive and all the market charts in that timeframe negative, the rot is still there and I don't see any move above new SPX highs as having any legs, in fact it looks like a trigger to sell the market off, so 8 days later from being 2 points away, would the SPX finally just move the half percent or so needed to finish the job already!

I'm going to update the charts and scans, talk to my wife on Skype for about an hour and then see what else there is to see in the market today, especially with breadth.