Market Update

I think the last few updates were correct, I think the SPX closing high is within grasp and I think they are desperate for it, even if it's just transactional costs, the bid/ask spread on volume, volume rebates, whatever, it's worth it to hit that mark when it's so close, but taking so long to hit it is telling in itself, we've been within two points of the new high in the SPX since 8 days ago, that's almost 2 trading weeks. Eight days ago we were literally less than 2 points from the close needed for the new high, we are talking about 0.0013% away!!!

 DIA 1 min, I said I thought we needed more time before a positive divergence, intraday bottom could be put in, since capturing this chart just minutes ago, prices have headed toward the trendline I was going to say, "This is where they are headed to finish the divergence".

 The 2 min chart is on board now, that means probabilities shift away from consolidation and toward a bounce intraday, they still have a mission.

 CONTEXT for SPX futures saw the model leading ES lower all night, as mentioned last night there were negative divergences and ES followed them lower, but they are now a bit closer.

The SPY arb. shows they have been throwing everything they can at the market to try to arrest the decline and get the market moving up again toward that SPX high, as you see, it seems to have worked, it seems they have been able to absorb the supply for now as the arb and SPY now move in to nearly perfect correlation. I'll have to see if this is just due to the SPY holding or risk assets losing their grip as they were used earlier to help halt the decline.

Nothing above changes any plans, generally speaking, I WOULD NOT try to play this on the long side right now, there's just WAY too much fundamental risk out there or Black Swan risk.