AA Earnings

One quarter we did an experiment to see if we could find what I considered to be leaked earnings, I went through nearly every stock that was reporting (with at least somewhat respectable volume and market cap) and picked the ones that seemed to be really out of place very recently (before the earnings announcement ) and assumed because of this strange behavior which was nothing like the market's or other stocks in the same sub-industry group as well as the strength of the signal (it really had to stand out) that this was likely a sign of institutional activity on leaked earnings, after all, what do you think professional networks that serve hedge funds really are?

We identified something like 22 and I posted which way I thought they'd move after earnings (most likely the next day, not so much in volatile after hours and we were right something like 19 times out of the 22 I found, that's after looking at hundreds, maybe a thousand or more stocks, but that's still a pretty darn high success rate.

Some that stood out were GOOG, we didn't see any signal here until the last 15 mins. of the day before they reported AH and that was on.

RIMM was showing odd behavior and we went long, we totally missed earnings and RIMM fell, but 3C stayed positive and we held RIMM even at the loss, then they had a big shakeup in management and we made 10% on the position, we saw a leak, it just wasn't earnings, it was forehand knowledge of a company shakeup.

As far as AA, I don't recall ever catching anything here. I do see positive behavior, it's subtle, but thorough since about the end of March so if I had to guess I'd say RIMM reacts positively over the next day on earnings, I'm not saying earnings will be good, just a probability of how the stock will react.

I do not think this is an earnings leak, but perhaps some Whisper numbers on the street.