Since we already know the levers of short term manipulation are being pulled in ES and the SPY (via TLT, VXX and HYG), I figured I'd take a quick look even though it's very early for this layout.
I found both HIO and FCT (our sentiment proxies since they aren't used in any correlation) both to be in an early risk on posture.
Copper is outperforming the SPX on a relative basis by a decent margin.
HYG is interesting because you need perspective to see it...
The 1 min chart shows High Yield Corp. Credit going negative against the SPX (green) late Thursday sending the SPX lower, this morning it is in line or a bit better, however..
Take a look at a longer 5 min chart, HYG obviously goes negative vs the SPX and lower the SPX goes and we see the inline status this morning, but look at the white trendline and where HYG was vs where the SPX was at both the far left and far right side of the trendline, HYG is showing stronger relative performance if you put it in perspective.
Junk Credit is also in line with the SPX.
VXX is also showing better relative performance vs the SPX once in perspective.
Note SPX price (green) vs VXX (Short term VIX futures), there's a lot less fear here than at similar areas to the left marked in green for VXX and red for the SPX, this looks like manipulation of VIX futures.
High Yield Credit is also in a very supportive area for the SPX.
Commodities (as mentioned copper among them) are supportive and leading on a relative basis vs the SPX.
Currencies are as well as I figured last night, the Euro is very supportive of higher prices
As is the USD as it continues to pullback and the SPX has been moving the exact opposite of the normal correlation, I figure a lot of that is so it could be accumulated short term.
And the Yen is still moving lower meaning the Carry trade is still lucrative if not very dangerous.
After seeing the carry, FX, credit and more, I can see why the ES CONTEXT model is positive over ES.
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