Monday, April 8, 2013

Precious Metals Pullback / Trade Opportunity

Last week's positions in gold and silver (I chose 2x leveraged ETFs for both rather than 1x as I wanted an extra kick, but didn't want to use options for this exact reason) are pulling back, so long as the pullback shows positive divergences in to the pullback and the charts look generally good, I think this could be an interesting area to add to partial positions started last week or to start new ones, I still prefer 2x leveraged ETFs.

Gold/GLD/DGP or UGL
 1 min intraday timeframe shows a negative divergence in GLD fro late last week

 Since it went beyond 1 min the probability was high for a pullback rather than a lateral consolidation. Here you can see the base in GLD, in line and then the negative divergence.

 The more important 10 mi chart is still in line so this is why I'm not concerned about the pullback and expect it will likely become a buying opportunity.

 The even more important 15 min chart shows a strong leading positive divergence, so the underlying trend seems to be very solid, just the short term is showing any thing negative and along the lines of a normal pullback.

 The X-Over screen has given a long signal on the 60 min chart, it hasn't quite made the daily yet, but still, the first pullback is typically to the yellow 10-bar (60 min) moving average.

Silver/ SLV/AGQ
 The 1 min intraday in SLV also shows accumulation, higher prices and a negative divergence for a pullback.

 The 3 min chart is leading positive with a small relative negative divergence (relative divergences are weaker than leading divergences), thus this suggests a pullback over a consolidation.

 However since the longer charts which show the stronger underlying trend like this 10 min remain leading positive, I'm not concerned about the pullback and think it is actually an opportunity to buy at better prices and lower risk.

 Again like GLD, the 15 min is leading positive with no sign of any 3C weakness.

 We almost have all 3 indicators firing on a 60 min X-Over screen, the 10-bar may be a little too shallow for this pullback...

The 60 min trend channel may work a bit better at a current stop on a closing basis of $26.15, but I'd be willing to give it some more room so long as the charts look positive in to the pullback indicating the pullback is being accumulated.

As for current ETF positions, I see no reason to do anything other than hold at this time.

No comments: