Monday, April 8, 2013

Early Update

As yo know the early action is typically pretty deceptive with stop and limit order runs from trades placed pre-market by those who have jobs in the world, especially on Monday and this is why a.m. action can be very deceiving, but as far as what we have so far, I feel fine about the shorter term trend of up and a strong move at that.

Earlier we already saw CONTEXT for ES was showing the model 8 points above ES, so the risk levers are being pulled. Even though it's very early as this is delayed, their SPY arbitrage model shows the same with a pretty big positive differential.
 The SPY arbitrage model also shows the risk levers being pulled, I'll check them out next, but we have a nearly $.90 positive differential in the model over SPY.

As far as opening examples, I'll just use the SPY as the other averages all have the same theme.

 Intraday 1 min chart this morning is in line, 3C moving with price so nothing big right now, which is not unexpected at this time of the day, however...

 The 2 min chart is leading positive

 As is the 3 min chart which means there's migration of the positive divergence, it is building stronger through the higher timeframes.

 At 5 min it is leading positive with a relative negative which is the weaker of the 2 divergences, I expect the 3 min chart's positive divergence will migrate to the 5 min and then 10 min


And link up with the leading positive in the 15 min, some other averages like the IWM have extremely large positive 15 min charts, so I think that is what will happen.

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