More on the AGQ / SLV trade

I knew I liked SLV and GLD and I knew I wanted the ETFs (leveraged) rather than options because I thought we'd see more of a longer term trade and I'd prefer to be able to just hold it than jumping in and out with options.

What I didn't know until just tonight is that the short interest based on the Silver Futures COT (Commitment of traders) data has only been this high 5 times in the last 20 years, 4 of the 5 saw significant short squeezes.

Here's the COT data with the last 5 times in 20 years and the performance.

The one time silver fell after hitting this level of short activity was after a long and steady rise in short interest, not a spike up like we have now.

The average trade return, +40.5%

I knew there was something I liked about my least favorite asset to trade, as mentioned in today's update I left the leveraged ETF long positions open in Gold and Silver. I think we have a little more work on the consolidation side, but it seems we are close. I personally would have no problem buying in this area.