AAPL Update

As you know I like AAPL's longer term chart, I just didn't trust the entire picture as the short term charts never fell in line with the longer term and this is one of the reasons (the main reason) a AAPL Put position was opened yesterday, it's green this morning, I suspect just because of whatever was showing up in negative fashion on the short term charts.

I do not know, but there may be some association in traders' minds between the collapse in PC sales and the outlook for AAPL. This morning IDC Released this report. In the report it say PC Sales "Post the steepest EVER in a single quarter" adding "Although the reduction in shipments was not a surprise, themagnitude of the contraction is both surprising and worrisome,".

If you are wondering how AAPL might show negative divergences yesterday based on a report issued today, lets not forget this isn't a big governmental financial, market moving report like the F_E_D / F_O_M_C Minutes which were released to at least 154 recipients including banks and private equity funds MORE THAN A FULL DAY BEFORE IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE RELEASED AND BEFORE IT WAS RELEASED TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC.

I keep looking for a place to sign up on the F_E_D's website to receive these economic reports more than a day before everyone else, I can't find it, although as predicted Goldman Sachs and JPM both were on the list.

I digress, back to AAPL, here are this morning's charts, so far it looks like we are in a consolidation with a little upside gap that typically would be filled.

 AAPL's 15 min chart which looks pretty good, I have no problem with the leading positive divergence (the strongest kind) in the white box to the far right. However as mentioned several times this week, when looking at AAPL, even when I posted I thought it would move up, I still wasn't comfortable with the entire picture and my belief is probabilities are nice, but high probabilities are trades, I didn't see that.

 Here's an example of a 3 min chart which should be very positive considering the 15 min above, yet it is negative and went leading negative yesterday when the Put position was opened. Toward the end of the day we saw the attempted 3:30 market ramp, AAPL made it a bit further and broke intraday resistance, in effect creating a head-fake/false breakout at the yellow arrow which are often seen just before a reversal.

 Even the 10 min chart which was among the longer charts that looked good with several areas of positive divergences/accumulation (in white), yesterday's leading negative divergence in this timeframe was alarming. Although the put position is open and I'd like to see AAPL fall and that position become even more profitable, I'm actually rooting for AAPL as the longer term charts seems to suggest something that may very well be worth buying at some point.

On a 2 min intraday chart we see another leading negative divergence (this was the overall problem with AAPL), this morning it seems to be in a consolidation/holding pattern. I wouldn't be surprised if AAPL filled in this morning's gap, but as of now I wouldn't be concerned if it did.

I'll keep it on the radar.