Quick Market Update

This will be quick because quite a few things are moving quickly and have changed from yesterday that I want to cover. First the CONTEXT model and SPT Arbitrage because many of the changes like HYG are found in the model's components.

 Th ES (SPX Futures) model (green) vs ES (SPX futures) is now at a deep negative differential with the model being over 20 points below ES, suggesting a much lower price in ES to come.

In similar Fashion the SPY Arbitrage is also negative and growing between the arb. model in green and the SPY in red. This isn't too far off the a.m. charts.

 DIA 1 min is leading negative which suggests heavy distribution in to this move in a.m. trade which is notoriously deceptive.

 Divergences, if strong enough, migrate through the longer timeframes, the 2 min chart therefore is confirming as it is also seeing a leading negative divergence off a late day positive divergence that I suspect was part of the late day ramp attempt that failed.

 The DIA 3 min chart intraday is where DIA is in line with 3C or trend confirmation, so the 2 min chart's negative divergence needs to migrate to the 3 min chart next.

The SPY...

 1 min also leading negative like the DIa

 2 min also leading negative below most of yesterday's 3C readings.

 Like the DIA, the 2 min SPY negative needs to migrate to the 3 min chart next, then we have a more credible downside reversal, this shows yesterday's negative, the yellow arrow shows the negative turning price from up to lateral and also a late day positive that looks like it was for the EOD ramp attempt, but was still effective in moving the SPY higher this a.m. as the shares were already accumulated.

 At 5 min SPY was relative negative yesterday and leading negative now, the intraday movement is in line, but within a more serious leading negative divergence, when the 1, 2 , 3 min charts connect with the 5 min, we'll have a serious probability of a reversal, likely sharp.

In futures, NQ (NASDAQ 100 futures) are leading negative, ES (SPX) just went sharply leading negative and TF (R2K) is still in line intraday. I'll post those next