Thursday, April 11, 2013

Overnight and Premarket


The USD/JPY effect...

These are 3 separate charts of NQ overnight because I can't get the entire timeframe on 1 chart.


 This shows 10 p.m (unfortunately I can't get anything before that on this timeframe, 3 a.m. at the European open and 8 a.m. to the far right as futures have fallen from the 5 a.m. level.

Just after 10 p.m. the USD/JPY saw a positive divergence sending it higher and continued higher through  the European open, just before 3 a.m. the USD/JPY starts to go negative (which has been typically associated with risk off) and from there the FX pair falls the rest of the morning like NQ above, so it seems there's a pretty high correlation overnight between the USD/JPY pair.

Here's the FX pair...
USD/JPY

Note the positive divergence sending the pair higher around 10 p,m, or just a bit after, the divergence starting around 9 p.m. and then the negative divergence going in to 3 a.m. with the pair falling shortly after.

The $USDX looks pretty positive presently, suggesting a higher dollar in to the US open.
A relative positive divergence from 3 a.m. to 6 a.m. I suppose if futures traders were watching the tape carefully in the $USD, they could have taken the same cues, just a bit earlier before the $USD reacted, but while underlying trade was hinting at a shift. Currently there's a large positive leading divergence in the $USDX.

The other Index futures...
 ES also going negative off an overnight bounce at 5 a.m.

And the R2K futures (TF) going negative around a 3 a.m. to 6 a.m. negative divergence.

Overnight news wasn't good, Australian unemployment jumped more than expected (36,000 drop on 7,000 consensus), also Greek unemployment adds 1.5%, the most in one month ever to a new record of 27.2%. Chinese Auto Sales missed and again BOJ governor Kuroda is still in damage control from his QE policy, for the 4th night in a row, already starting to back out of his policy goals only days after setting them saying, "may adjust policy before the 2% target is reached if the economy and other indicators are growing rapidly."

I'll add some more news, let me get these futures out first.




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