Thursday, April 11, 2013

XLF Follow Up

From the charts it doesn't look like XLF is capable of making much of a momentum move, but the last moves stocks make before a reversal (often while they have strong divergences working against them) are the ones that have to look most convincing.

I don't have to have XLF puts, but if I can get them, I'd like them.

Here's what we have for XLF (there's a lot in other places like leading indicators).

 This 3 min chart is a very small positive, especially compared to the much stronger leading negative divergence it is in, but it represents more of an intraday move, while the leading negative (larger divergence) represents the flow of underlying trade, heavily skewed toward strong distribution.

 The 5 min chart has no positive on it at all and the leading negative gives me more than enough confidence to open a put up here.

 This 2 mn chart should have loaded first, it's intraday and a small relative positive divergence within a larger leading negative, this migrated to the 5 min chart at the top.

That's about the best I have for any kind of volatility/momentum, XLF is already above resistance, the volume isn't that impressive either, one of the reasons for running these moves is to bring in new retail buyers on the breakout so volume is something they like to see so maybe...

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