AAPL Update

You may recall that AAPL was interesting because of the 10 min, REALLY the 15 min and the 30 min charts, they were looking quite good, however even though I thought AAPL would make a move to the upside last week and it did probably less than a few hours after I posted that, I didn't feel comfortable with AAPL because the short term charts in the 1-5 min range were not confirming or in line with the longer charts. You may recall I said, "I'd rather miss the move than take a trade I don't feel is high probability". My real interest in AAPL was a possible longer term, bigger trade.

Well now things are sort of flipping, the short term charts are looking better this morning as you might have guessed (from IWM and market updates), but the longer term charts that were positive saw so much damage from last week that they are no longer what I'd call positive and AAPL is basically just about back to where it was when all of this started so I'm glad I didn't open a longer term position there.

Here's an update and a sort of "reset" for AAPL and we'll see where it goes from here. I am a bit tempted to take a short term long position that could even turn out to be a day trade, but again I think I'll hold off until the probabilities loo better, even if I miss some upside (my interest in AAPL was in the longer charts and a bigger move, not volatile chop that is up 2.2% from last week's move and down over 2.5% since.

 As for the daily chart and the "bigger Trade" in AAPL that was what was really interesting, I'm glad to have waited on that as the result was just chop, good for a short term trade, but that's not what I was looking for.


 This 15 min chart as of April 9th was what was so interesting. However last week as damage was being done, I suspected the negative divergences would continue to migrate through the higher timeframes and ruin this 15 min chart.

 This was the 10 min (and is the present position of the 10 min), it was because this chart was negative and had not turned up (ending the damage) that I suspected the 15 min chart would be corrupted.

 Here's the 15 min chart now, a big change since the 9th and 3C still hasn't turned up so there certainly could be more damage and just like that, because there was no confirmation in the shorter charts, we were right to stay away from a longer term trade in AAPL.

 Here's the 1 min intraday as of today, there's a decent relative positive divergence and a leading positive today, this looks interesting in the very short term, but not enough for even a short term trade.

 The 2 min chart after having gone negative at last week's highs is now looking better with a leading positive divergence, still not enough for a short term trade,

 This is where it gets interesting, the 3 min chart, after having gone negative at the week's highs, is positive this morning. However this was one of the really troublesome timeframes in the longer term trade analysis. Take a look at the same chart zoomed out to where it was troublesome last week.

 In the orange area, there should have been a positive divergence in to that pullback, the fact there wasn't is what really discouraged me from any longer term trades based on a positive 15 min leading divergence. In context, all of the sudden today's divergence doesn't look very special.

And the 5 min chart so far is in line, the positive divergences on the 1-3 min charts are not yet strong enough to migrate to the 5 min timeframe which is where we really see the first (earliest) timeframe that represents institutional underlying trade.

So that's where AAPL is now, the 15 min chart is no longer interesting as to a longer term trade and we have the small start of something positive, but nothing much more than that. We now know where AAPL sits and have to see where things go from here.