Market Update :SPY

Again, I REALLY don't want to buy a dead cat bounce, I think this move has to have some base to it capable of supporting a move that isn't just going to fly up and fall down, volatility is already going to increase dramatically so we really need to be patient, maybe forgo some trades and make sure if we commit money, there's a darn good reason for it.

Earlier I mentioned that it would be the early intraday (fastest) charts that would give us a timing signal, if this is the move up, then I'm glad not to have anything to do with it, but if it is part of a "W" base or a rectangle base, then that's a different story, but at least we now know for certain that the intraday charts that I suspected would be the charts that nail the timing, are working as expected.

 SPY 1 min is leading positive and we get a price move from there so it's working as I thought it would even though this is a strange divergence. What I'd like to see is price come back down and that move up act as the middle of the "W" is such a base or the top range of a rectangle.

 SPY 2 min also is leading positive today before the move so that's good as well as the divergence is migrating through longer timeframes and acting as it should. Note the leading negative on the 11th.

 The 3 min chart is also positive, but it takes some time, look at the top divergence and the shape of price, it's not just a sharp "V" reversal, we need to see something like that along this bottom to make the risk worthwhile.

 This is the move from last week. You may remember that my VIX /Market Analysis from the week before predicted a move up last week and that is why we bought calls and a strong move down this week and that is why we bought puts.

You may also remember that I DID NOT trust this move last week as it started on Monday on an algo ramp on the lowest volume of the year, but the REAL PROBLEM was that there was so little accumulation/base. I expected Monday to put in a stronger base before the move up, this is why I didn't trust last week's move to hold.

Finally we are seeing migration to the 5 min chart, look at the leading negative on 4/11, we want to see a leading positive along those lines in terms of size on this timeframe.