Monday, April 15, 2013

Quick Leading Indicators Update

As far as Credit goes, HYG and JNK are following the SPX nearly tick for tick, more or less, good confirmation of the trend. High Yield Credit is similar except it hasn't made a lower low since about 9:50 a.m.

Risk sentiment wise, FCT is showing a little improved risk sentiment, HIO has improved from 11 a.m. to present by making higher lows vs the SPX.

Around 11:40 VIX futures were showing a lot more fear than the SPX's movement would indicate, they've come in to line since then. TLT is showing a bit of a negative divergence between April 5th and now, the normal correlation would suggest TLT be higher than April 5th, it is not so I need to look at the 3C charts there, they may be using some levers already.

$AUD which I mentioned last week as tracking the market better than the Euro showed much more negative sentiment early today, it has improved recently, which is more market positive or maybe I should say "Less market negative". The Euro is showing some relative support. As mentioned on the 3C charts of the Yen, it looked to be showing more local support, price action is as well as the Yen hasn't made much of a higher high vs the SPX's lower lows.

Yields intraday are becoming more supportive which would also suggest the TLT levers of manipulation are being pulled, on a longer timeframe, the SPX has caught up to (reversion to the mean) the leading downside I pointed out in Yields last week, now they are pretty close to in line. On a longer term or big picture basis, Yields are VERY negatively dislocated from the market.

Commodities have shown improvement since 11 a.m. and are market supportive, but again we are talking about stage 2 , short term bounce-which could be quite strong, but still the big picture of the market is much weaker than any short term strength.

In relative sector strength there aren't too many surprises except Tech is showing better relative strength than other groups and even more so, Financials (which I've been looking for a bounce to short in to)  are showing much better relative performance than other groups.




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