Tuesday, April 30, 2013

AMZN Update

AMZN looked like it was pretty well developed in the reversal process as of yesterday for a dead cat bounce, we even appear to have seen the head fake move just before the reversal started this morning, volume was there so it was effective. I suspect AMZN will at least consolidate here if not pullback a bit intraday, keep an eye on the 50-bar 5 min moving average, I personally don't care at all about these moving averages except for the fact that other traders are keenly watching that average on that timeframe and will react to it, such as support at the average, stops hit below it, volume surging crossing above it, etc.

 The AMZN base area for a bounce, on this 5 min chart we see positive divergences as we should as well as what appears to be a head fake move (we see these about 80% of the time just before a reversal, think of it as a small bear trap or stealing shares on the cheap as volume tends to be higher).

Here's the head fake move below a support area with volume surging as stops are taken out, as they say (Or at least in the spirit of that Japanese game) "ALL OF YOUR SHARES ARE BELONG TO US!" 

The Intraday day chart confirms accumulation at the head fake move area, but this morning in the yellow box, 33C is lagging price a bit, making me think a consolidation or pullback is likely.

 The 5 min chart is leading positive beautifully, this alone is enough for the kind of move we are looking for, but we have further out timeframes also supporting the move.

Momentum has clearly switched to positive

And this is the 5 min/ 50 bar moving average I'd keep an eye on, I'd guess a pullback to that area would be likely or a consolidation as the average moves up to meet price. The Trend Channel on the same timeframe has a stop at $250.55, but that's more for just judging anything out of the ordinary.


No comments: