Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Financials

Here's a look at Financials which have coverage in FAZ long positions...
 XLF 1 min intraday dumping hard


Same with the 2 min intraday

We have good migration of the negative divergence with the 3 min intraday hitting all new leading lows for this chart. Note the accumulation area, this tells you A LOT a bout how smart money accumulates and distributes.

 The first institutional timeframe at 5 min is leading negative near a new low.

 The 10 min chart shows accumulation to the left, distribution in to that run which really didn't have that much accumulation, another likely smaller accumulation area (at this point I think any accumulation is just to get the group to move, more than trying to buy low/sell high, in effect so they can load up short positions, you can't distribute a lot of shares and expect price to hold up while you sell even more to establish shorts-both actions are selling.

The yellow area is an obvious head fake area as the distribution confirms it.

 15 min chart showing the same areas, the same things, the same lack of any real accumulation at Mid-April and even early April lows.

the 30 min

30 min trend, here we see the last real strong accumulation zone at the november 16th lows and the weeks preceding them as we came down about 8% from the September 14th highs, the day after QE3 was announced.

The fact we have a leading negative low below anything on the chart art far lower prices reflects the short positions in place.

Additionally, if the leading negative divergence seems unbelievable to you, look where it really started, around early March.

Now look at the next chart.
This is a "Breadth" chart, it is literally the percentage of all NYSE listed stocks that are trading 1 standard deviation above their 40-day moving average which is normal for a rally. The SPX is in red, the indicator is green. Note the 71% highs as the rally gets going, then falls to 51%, then a low of 21% and now almost half of what it was in January and soon it will be. This should move up, not down in a healthy rally.

More importantly, look at the timeframe when it really deteriorated, March.

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