Bigger Picture/Smaller Picture

CONTEXT for ES shows us the bigger picture, when it is negative as it is now, there are a whole range of risk assets that normally have a high correlation with ES, such as Credit, carry trades, currencies, rates, and more.

 So when we see the CONTEXT model for ES (SPX Futures) diverging negatively with a current differential of about 5-7 points (30 min or more delayed), we know that other risk assets are not playing along, but are instead performing worse, suggesting the market is being juiced. Remember the last time we saw CONTEXT at a 40+ point negative differential, over the course of a day, that entire differential was covered as ES lost almost the exact same number of points, I believe there was a 2 point difference.

Shorter term the SPY arbitrage shows us 3 assets commonly used to manipulate the market: volatility (VXX-VIX Futures), treasuries (TLT) and Credit (HYG). It seems obvious this morning someone has applied some leverage in one of the 3, I'm not sure which yet as I'm loading that layout and they are trying to regain control of the market.

The SPY, IWM and QQQ intraday charts suggest the same.

 1 min intraday SPY building a positive divergence this morning.

IWM 1 and 2 min charts doing the same.

QQQ 2 min chart also starting to try to get control.