With a market like this, you don't know how long you can trust anything to hold, quite frankly I'm surprised by the 10-year (actually the entire curve) treasuries breaking down like they did, that's one I'll be watching closely as I think there's more to the story than as it first appears.
In any case, I like GLD longer term as is bear market (for gold) Counter-Trend Rally, which can last weeks, even months in the right environment.
I decided to take the early momentum in GLD even though I expect there to be more because I did a test fill and the calls appreciated 20% from yesterday's close in the green so I'll take that and leaves the other GLD $133 call position in place.
Here's the P/L on these calls and then the charts...
The position, opened at $4.85
The trial fill and the rest of the 15 contracts closed this a.m.
And the fill which comes out to a +16% gain on the open or about a $1160 profit.
As for the charts...
GLD 5 min shows a pretty strong probability of the move up in GLD and continued near term moves to the upside, this is why I kept the $133 contracts, between the two they were 2x the size of a normal option position.
This is the longer term view in GLD for the counter trend rally, a 15 min leading positive divergence. I don't think I can hold the $133 calls through the entire thing, but I think we can open/close/open /close to take advantage of momentum and get out on consolidations or pullbacks. So I see quite a few opportunities for GLD in the near future.
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