I can breakdown all of overnight's events from Japanese $1trillion POMO operations that barely moved the Nikkei, but left JGB's fairly stable to a plethora of bad news from China and much of Europe, the reaction globally to the US bond sell-off which has obviously been negative, the USD/JPY breaking down overnight and Mario Draghi of the ECB losing all ECB council member support for his ABS purchase program as well as negative deposit rates, but all of that is here and gone in a flash.
I think what is important right now is where the market is opening, which is a level I said I though it might return to yesterday in forming a "W" base...
This 15 min chart of the SPY shows exactly what I was talking about yesterday with the open at the white arrow, That's just about our "W" base so I'm going to stay patient, gather data as to whether there's the accumulation I'd expect and if so, put some trades together.
Index futures are in line (3C trend), the Yen is in line, the USD looks as if it could gain, which would likely help the USD/JPY considering the Yen is in line while the USD is in a positive divergence. The USD/JPY is also in a positive divergence, a weaker Yen is more important for the market right now that a stronger dollar so it seems what we expected yesterday is coming to life today.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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