Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Market Update Charts


The SPY on the second bottom of a "W" base- This still is a VERY weak base
 SPY 1 min leading positive today, I'd like to see a head fake move below the SPY's intraday lows with continued intraday accumulation, I might be tempted to open a Call option trade in that case, but this is very short term, very speculative.

 The divergence stops at 5 min where you can see the entire "W" pattern and a positive divergence in to today's lows as a "W" should show. Typically we also see a run of the stops, the head-fake move I mentioned above, that would be excellent timing to look at a long for a quick trade, if you don't like options there always 2-3x leveraged ETFs, in that case I'd prefer UPRO (SPX 3x long).

 DIA 1 min with a nice intraday positive divergence, the market has used today's price action to create the "W" that was my "Working Thesis" yesterday for near term trade.

 The DIA doesn't go positive much beyond the 2 min chart and when going up against an hourly chart (night and day difference between the smart money flows-longer charts are heavier flows)...

The truly PRUDENT thing to do would to just be patient, don't even fool around with trading the upside move and just use upside price strength to sell short in to. That is my primary goal even if I do open some shorter term trades here and there on good signals.

IWM 2 min is about as far as it goes, the R2K often leads the market so I'm not surprised it looks the worst right now, 2 min is intraday not institutional.

Even at the 5 min, the IWM looks really bad.

QQQ 1 min intraday accumulation today as suspected yesterday...

However the divergence doesn't move past 5 min which can still cause a multi day run, but even at 5 mins, the divergences themselves are very weak.

I showed the $USD with a leading positive divergence, when it takes off to the upside then the USD/JPY above does the same and the pair just put in its own leading positive divergence so this tells me the market's intraday bounce is close at hand.

We have to see how fast they sell in to price strength, I expect pretty fast.

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