Wednesday, May 22, 2013

HYG...

This is an institutional risk asset, I told you t started to fall apart from it's bounce within a larger move down. As a leading indicator, this is one of the negatives we look for re: a market reversal, these are some of the biggest dislocations in Leading indicators...

 HYG selling off right at the top of today's intraday highs...

After the large sell-off- which is important as a leading indicator vs the SPX, it formed a small base, I told you BEFORE HYG moved at all, that it would bounce and in my view it would be sold in to any strength. I also feel like HYG as an SPY Arbitrage asset to help with short term manipulation was used specifically for last week's moves in the market, especially Thursday's failed triangle breakout attempt and Friday's successful one.

White is HYG short term accumulation, red is the second push higher helping the SPX to try to breakout of Thurs. triangle-FAILED. Green is HYG's push higher helping SPY breakout of a smaller triangle. Yellow is the follow up run as bulls came in to the market, HYG was under heavy distribution there.


HYG update vs the SPX

HYG breaking the trendline, there's always going to be some initial support there...

 HYG 2 min distribution today at the highs

3 min chart showing the entire cycle from accumulation to the moves higher all being distributed.

 5 min chart seeing heavy distribution and totally falling apart at a new leading negative low.

10 min chart is seeing migration, it never went positive, just in line, but it is seeing distribution so it is heavier than just a 5 min chart.

How do you play this, you can buy options for HYG, but I think it says more about the market and where smart money is going, a different direction than the SPY. HYG is to smart money what the IWM/QQQ or SPY are to retail.

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