Wednesday, May 22, 2013

TLT (Safety) vs. HYG (Risk)

Remember, short term timeframes are more responsive, but they are weaker signals, the longer the chart, the stronger the signal. So far what I see looks like retail knee jerk, but it appears something else is going on in the institutional timeframe which starts at 5 min charts.

***As for emails today, of course if I can I will get to them, but my first responsibility is to all members. If you have questions that you think might be relevant or you'd like to see, if you can keep the message as short as possible and put the message in the subject line, I can hopefully get to the ones I think are most important, I can't guarantee a reply right now, but I will look at the asset.

TLT-20+ year Treasuries...SAFETY

 TLT's 1 min chart which is typically intraday-often market makers or retail, is in line with the move in TLT, there was a negative divergence on the open.


 The longer 2 min, but still intraday is much stronger than the 1 min and it's not because of lag, in essence, the divergence on the 2 min is actually positive.

At the first institutional level , we have a stronger positive divergence. This is telling considering the knee-jerk reactions that are largely from retail as Smart Money already has an idea of their playbook, they aren't "winging it on the fly"

HYG- High Yield Corp. Credit... RISK
 HYG 1 min is in line

The 2 min looks SIGNIFICANTLY different. There's no positive on the 1 min, just in line. This is the first REAL divergence.

The 5 min is in leading negative position.

I believe this is a pice, just a piece, but a big piece of the puzzle.


No comments: