Pretty Amazing Stop Run in TLT- This is sending some message

Even if this was an organic event, it would have to have repercussions, if it is a planned event, then we are getting a very clear signal.

I've often spoke of head-fake moves and one of the motivations is a accumulating on a stop run or distributing on a short squeeze. This is one of the easiest ways for Wall St. to accumulate in large size without retail catching on to what they are doing. Retail thinks a big volume spike and move up is institutional buying, it's the furthest thing from it. However buying weakness is exactly their bag and no one ever suspects anything on a major stop run, they never ask, "Who took the other side of that trade?" because those who were stopped out had their shares bought/accumulated by someone.

So if it is organic and not planned, market makers have a boatload of shares (as market makers and specialists MUST by law, take the other side of the trade as long as it was a market order-this would probably have been a limit order or a stop order) they need to sell at higher prices, if planned, then it's straight out accumulation of a "Flight to Safety Asset".

Take a look for yourself, AMAZING.

 TLT stop run at 10:40 a.m. Look at that volume, now for perspective...

I had to use an hourly chart to reflect this run alone, any higher and we are putting multiple bars in one 60 min bar, this is one bar at 10:40, this is the largest TLT volume ALL Year and it could be even more because of the problem of putting too many bars in one. In any case, This is the largest volume in TLT on a stop run in a bar at 10:40 a.m. of the entire year!

 TLT 1 min would be the chart that would move the fastest and react, , note it is still leading positive, it did not go massively negative on the stop run. This is a huge event so I don't want to speculate too much, but based on the trend of what we have seen and based on these charts, I'm guessing this is accumulation of the stop run.

 TLT 2 min also positive, this is a chart more than fast enough to reflect distribution, it is positive.

Same with the 3 min chart, except we see a negative divergence at the open as if TLT was given a push lower on the open.

10 min is still positive and this would have moved on a move this large.

TLT 15 min also positive, beyond 15 min I don't think the timeframes could respond as fast as the event occurred.

This is VERY interesting. I don't want to get ahead of myself because I've not seen much like this before on this scale in this environment, but I believe this is a big piece of the puzzle, you know where I'm leaning based on the charts above.

There are tons of things to see today, I'm doing my best to stay on top of them.

Also from a member who has been very helpful with the above....

"Doesn't know if before or after labor day (like the unemp rate will be <6 .5="" by="" span="" then="">

Monitoring asset prices for frothiness ... suggests he's going to have to cool off stocks ... if I were a margined speculator i'd ring the register."

The key assesment is the following, "Doesn't know if before or after labor day (like the unemp rate will be <6 .5="" by="" span="" then="">

That's a real big hole in Bernie's pitch.