Market Update

I'm going to start looking for positions, if we follow the AAPL theory, then the market should get 1 last move to the upside, HYG will support that move...

 HYG 1 min-as an oversold move as cover, HYG's move up would support the SPY Arbitrage model/SPY, if we follow the AAPL example laid out as the model for the market as well, HYG's action makes a LOT of sense. As does TLT's price positioning and VXX's, although their underlying trend is much different, but it's price that the arbitrage model follows.

 For instance, although not strong, we do have an HYG positive to 5 mins, at 10 min it stops completely, no hint. What does that tell you about HYG? As a lever, it is being prepped, as a real asset in portfolios...

This 15 min chart tells you everything you need to know, as I mentioned before, they are running, not walking away from risk in Credit.

I would think they'd want this move to start before the close today to make the most of it on the open tomorrow.

The Leading Indicators layout near term doesn't matter anymore, it is so negative and dislocated, we are well within reversal territory and when I say not 20%, that's what the media considers to be a correction, I'm talking about the end of the story started in March of 2009.

Asa for TLT, other than the long term daily chart which you have seen soo many times I dare not put it up again, what's important is the timing of what it going on.

 The 2 min chart shows the detail of where accumulation is/was/still is, but as you get to longer, more important charts, the trend becomes clear. You must understand however the difference between a 1 min and 5 min divergence and a 10 min and 15 min and a 15 min and 60 min. The longer the timeframe, the more significant the flows of money are, so shorter timeframes will always look stronger and have more detail, but longer ones shoe the trend, they show the extent.

For example...

On the pullback for TLT, just today (as I mentioned, I think overnight futures were used to keep TLT low to accumulate on the cheap, which tells us something about timing too), the 60 min chat is in a leading positive position, this means there has been an exceptional amount of accumulation in a very short period here, why the hurry? I have an idea.

VXX...

 VXX 1 min

It doesn't matter what price is doing at this point with the Leading Indicators so dislocated, the SPY Arbitrage and CONTEXT don't even matter because the price action right now is totally irrelevant, it's the 3C action and the timing of the pickup in it,the way even minor strength is sold immediately, the hedge pack has split up.

2 hour, each divergence created a small move, but I believe this is one large divergence, the current leading positive 2 HOUR is yet to go.


I would say one of the most important things to watch for is HYG to make its move, that should (with TLT and VXX lower and under accumulation) allow the market to make that move up I envisioned in AAPL-IF THE MARKET MOVE OR ESPECIALLY HYG ARE SOLD PREMATURELY (NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES-EVEN PRICE FALLING) I THINK WE WILL KNOW THE MARKET IS ACTUALLY MAKING THAT CRACKING SOUND.

THAT WILL BE THE TIME TO MAKE YOUR MOVES ASAP, IN FACT I'M GOING TO LOOK RIGHT NOW, I'D RATHER BE A DAY EARLY THAN SCURRYING AROUND LAST MIONUTE.

As of this moment, I am not closing any positions, if I did, you'd know.