TLT

Here are the charts, as mentioned, I didn't understand why Treasuries gapped down with the market, they normally would go the opposite direction, but the low volume of overnight futures allows price to be manipulated with little cost, they want to buy TLT as cheap as possible.

First though TLT is used to send SPX and Dow to record highs, Wall St. can sell in to strength and short it, while buying TLT on the cheap. You recall we saw the shorter term (meaning not heavy distribution, but enough to turn TLT down) negative divergences and I even said specifically, TLT, although it has a VERY strong underlying trend will move lower, maybe a gap fill?" 

Well we can see what Wall Street is doing many times, but if you wait to find out why, then you've missed the move, the reason why in retrospect is quite clear.

 TLT (long term 20+ year Treasury Fund) makes a base, but before heading higher? A HEAD FAKE TO SHAKE OUT LONGS (Yellow trendline), TLT moves up against the SPX correlation and against what EVERY pundit on CNBC said, they said there would be a "Great rotation out of bonds/treasuries and in to stocks", does that look like that is what happened? Turn off CNBC.

Note the white areas where I suspected and 3C short term told us TLT was headed lower, I assumed to fill gaps-on 4/10 TLT gapped lower and 5/3.

Now, look at the SPX on the same days, remember TLT is one of the 3 levers.

SPX breaks out to a new high on 4/10 and again on 5/3, that would not have happened without TLT

TLT recently, "A" showing signs it will pullback, "B" starts accumulating and those who accumulated at "B" (even with price lower now, I guarantee will see profits), "C" is where TLT moved up with the SPX, the SPX topped right there on distribution, TLT was set to head higher and send the market to deep lows fast, this was last Thursday. Only the PPT would step in at that point and I believe as one of our members  wrote in and as John Hilsenrath, the unofficial mouthpiece for the WSJ wrote conveniently after the close Friday that the F_E_D is going to be tapering out of QE as I have maintained ever since (ironically) they launched QE3 on Sept. 13 2012! He also said they were worried about more or less managing the downside moves, but this is nothing new for the PPT, they don't ever want another 1929 so they let markets go bear, but manage them so they don't crash. Perhaps this is why there are typically more up days in a bear market than down days, the down days are just bigger. 

At "C" I almost guarantee it was the PPT stepping in sending TLT down on a large divergence for intraday and immediate, meaning they flashed a big order out in the open for all to see, not something smart money usually does. Why do you think there's all of this hubba-bub about Bloomberg terminals over the weekend and them being able to see whop placed what order? It wouldn't be good for the public to know that big TLT sell order flashed on Thursday at 2 p.m. came from the NY F_E_D's trading desk!!!

"D" could be a head fake move, I was surprised there was none, but it would be a natural reaction to seeing such a large,  apparently desperate looking sell order in TLT on Thursday as well. No doubt part of the PPT's way of sending TLT down without having to spend a lot, mostly psychological warfare.

As already stated, after the Hilsenrath article after the close Friday, of course smart money is over the print in TLT on Thursday and wants to buy TLT as cheap as possible, the easiest way is to send the open lower by manipulating LOW VOLUME overnight futures trade, which was accumulated as we already saw this morning.

 TLT 10-min, accumulation and at "A" the move on Thursday that could have crashed the market, even after TLT was sent lower the SPY still moved down. TLT broke out at 2 p.m., just as the SPY saw distribution and moved down and it broke out on 400% volume, Tell me one other risk asset like SPX or DOW new highs that even posted 25% higher volume on all new highs-NONE.

If TLT kept going without the PPT stopping it, SPX would be a lot lower, perhaps 1929 style, the PPT stepped in for a reason, not to manipulate, but to halt unreasonable declines.

Note accumulation even today in TLT as I already showed in futures.

TLT 5 min accumulation today, the green arrow is TLT's breakout and the PPT's halt of that, which is fine with smart money, buying TLT on the cheap is even better.

 TLT intraday 1 min

2 min with migration

3 min migration. Any questions as to what is happening in the Flight to Safety Trade?

TLT looks like it wants to head higher intraday, I'm sure they'd rather accumulate more down here, we'll see what they do, plus TLT moving up with VXX which is accumulating wouldn't be good if HYG  can't hold gains as it hasn't been able to yet.