Silver / SLV / AGQ

The only silver related open position is AGQ (UltraSilver 2x leverage long) and I think I'll keep it open. To be clear, I would not be opening new positions in silver or gold. I don't feel either one, despite what the divergences may look like, are in a high probability / low risk area.

For whatever reason, gold more than silver (and I can speculate that this is because gold is much more sensitive to anything QE/FED related as it blew far away from the normal value correlation with silver) looks to be in a much touchier spot.

Specifically gold is in at least an intermediate, if not primary bear market, it is also in a bear market rally that seems to have more gas in the tank, but the shorter or faster 3C timeframes are migrating negative and it may just be a matter of time before those longer term GLD counter trend rally divergences disappear.

SLV/silver futures...

The idea here is that with AGQ offering 2x leverage, it has a decent return potential, but at the same time the divergences in SLV are of a longer nature for the most part, they aren't very specific in terms of minutes, hours of even days, so if there's any draw down, there's not so much leverage that it causes a problem for the position and the drawdown must be limited because of the strength of the longer term divergences.

I can understand why gold would face significant challenges ahead, but I don't know why silver as a precious metal that typically moves together with gold to some degree, is not reflecting those same challenges, again the only thing I can guess is that silver was never turned in to a bubble by the F_E_D inflation fears and silver still has many practical uses in manufacturing; I suppose we will find out the answer sooner then later.

 SLV 30 min, but note the leading negative divergence to the left and then the leading positive to the right-this pattern plays out over and over through every time frame, so it must have been a very strong move of underlying action.

*Head fake move in yellow just about a week before a major decline. There was also a shakeout of the shorts too just before the decline-this is what I think happens in the overall market, just as they didn't want the shorts pre-boarding the train in SLV, they don't want them in the market either, they make their money by retail chasing which is something retail is already happy to do and call it confirmation-I'd say "Confirmation that they have no edge"

 15 min SLV chart, note the exact same signals

SLV 10 min chart, exact same signals. Whether AGQ fires in a day or a week, I have no problem holding it, I think it will make a strong move based on the positive divergences.

SI Silver Futures...

 SI 5 min chart shows a head fake move to the downside, we confirm this at the time by the accumulation of the break down and price confirms it later, but that is our edge, being able to enter on the head fake move at a far better price with far less risk while most retail would have to wait until the next day if they even entered at all.

The 5 min chart is interesting not only because of the current positive divergence, but because of the confirmed head fake move, these are typically the last event before the move so futures suggest the move in SLV/AGQ is close at hand.

SI 15 min also strongly confirms the head fake move and is in leading positive position which is a much stronger signal on the futures 15 min chart than on an equities 15 min chart.

Even the daily SI chart has an enormous positive divergence, why so different from Gold? I don't know, but there's something there and I intend to try to profit from it.

I do not see this as a great entry right now, I can see maybe an equity long on a somewhat speculative basis, the head fake move is the best place to get in on anything with more than 3x leverage.