AAPL & Market Update

I'm hoping this is going the way I expect (an intraday bounce), this gives me sometime to lay out the environment and where some of the better positions are, Tech is interesting.

Here's what I thought would happen in AAPL, this is a "Market Behavior Concept", based on how the market uses technical analysis against retail technical traders.

 I brought this triangle up about an hour ago. This is a symmetrical triangle in AAPL 1 min, technical analysis says it's a consolidation/continuation pattern and they usually are, just not like the textbook.

Technical traders expect the triangle to break to the downside so some will get short early, sometimes it will pull a Crazy Ivan and break down to pull in "confirmation shorts" and then the head fake up. This looks like it's very close to the head fake move to the upside.

The TICK data has barely reached -800 on the downside move so internals of breadth aren't as ugly as some of the charts.

RETAIL SENTIMENT THIS MORNING IS "BUY THE DIP AS EXPECTED" This may be deadly as some of the charts I will show you look horrible.

AAPL 1 min in line

3 min in line

5 min with a slight positive, that should be enough to sponsor an intraday move to the upside or market bounce.

At 10 mins we are negative.

And there goes AAPL as I'm putting this together.

Arbitrage assets to try to support intraday and maybe some, that's good for us.

 TLT coming down as the 1 min divergence suggests supports the positive SPY arb.

TLT 2 min to get a feel

TLT 5 min has been like this since yesterday, not an issue.

TLT 15 min where there's real strength.

In other words, an intraday bounce looks like a gift, maybe a final gift area to get set up.

HYG needs to move up to support SPY positive Arb.

 HYG 1 min positive

10 min negative, this is where it's headed, but short term we should have a bigger bounce

THIS ENTIRE BOUNCE WAS PREDICATED OVER AN HOUR AGO ON MARKET BEHAVIOR SPECIFICALLY IN AAPL