Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Market Update 1

I'm going to have to show you a few different updates, there's a lot to cover, First I want to show you what's going on right now, maybe what kind of time we have and the positions as of right now, I'm interested in (the ones I've been going over the last 90 minutes)

First as I suggested AAPL was a Bellwether for a market bounce, but I also thought the SPY arbitrage assets would come in to play and they have or "they are".

First the assets (this is not complete and there are some I'm leaving off), basically most either need some short term charts to turn or need a little more work on a long term chart, that would happen during a market period like this (for shorts)..

USO or DTO although I think it is speculative.

XLE Puts or ERY long

XLK Puts or something like TECS long (3x)

XLF puts or FAZ long (SKF for 2x leverage)

GS is starting to look interesting, almost didn't make this list as it has more work.

GOOG looks to be getting very close, essentially 1 more chart for me (short)

UVXY or VXX either calls or long equity positions

XOM (short)

NFLX (short)

Not sure about the PM's, right now I wouldn't tough them.

There are more and the other obvious plays would be the averages short with Puts of ETFs like SRTY, SQQQ, SDOW, SPXU.

As far as the bounce I was looking for earlier and started, their looking for arbitrage help as predicted well over an hour (maybe 2) ago.

 SPY Arb went from negative to positive

 HYG 1 is leading, but this is a 1 min chart, this is the arbitrage I said would be needed and there was evidence of it.

HYG 2 min has seen some migration, still we are at a 2 min intraday timeframe.

HYG 3 min is negative so it hasn't gone that far and a decisive negative here starts at 10 min so the point is the short term is short term, the longer term is negative and HYG looks to be well on its way down.


UVXY needs to move down to help the positive SPY arbitrage or VXX rather (their the same except for leverage).  1 min negative

2 min negative

like HYG there is no 3 min negative, but rather in line, so still a very small divergence.

UVXY 5 min is clearly leading positive so they're not going to get too far trying to move this one down or at least the accumulation built up isn't moving.

 TLT as I showed earlier, 3 min

At 15 min it is solid positive and well beyond to the 4 hour.

The AUD/JPY was lending a hand to stem the downside, here the AUD 1 min is about in line, but...

At 5 min it is turning negative so the pair should drop.

At 30 min it is very ugly.

Now I want to give you an example of what the market looks like

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