Yesterday I opened a new half size position in TLT, equity rather than options (but leaving room for that possibility), but I kind of wish I had chose options.
The long term chart is what is really appealing. Later there's an interesting discussion to be had with regard to the F_E_D, bonds and banks, I think it is bullish for bonds, but it is complicated.
For now, this is what TLT looks like thus far, remember it is an arbitrage asset and right now it's moving in a way that is not market supportive, the same can be said for both VXX and HYG.
TLT 1 min is in line intraday so far on the move higher.
The 2 min is moving in that direction
This 5 min chart was the only one I didn't like yesterday and the reason I chose equity rather than options as the long term charts look great and I prefer equity over options for a longer term trend, using options only in areas where the probabilities and timing are extremely good.
TLT 15 min is an example of the healthy looking nature of some of the longer term charts.
*This very quick distribution and gap to the downside is part of the strange action leading up to the 8th.
Or the 30 min. The 60 min chart looks good too.
Yesterday I basically said that the 5 min above wasn't going to hold me back when there's a 4 hour chart like this...
TLT 4 hour, this is a very long trend.
I may look to add to TLT or perhaps add a small call position, I do as of now, think having a longer term trending position makes sense, I'd just prefer a little leverage and the only 2x leverage have no volume.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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