Wednesday, July 10, 2013

AAPL Update

What to do with AAPL, Short? No, Long. You may recall how long we watched a process in AAPL and knew something was going on, right now the AAPL equity long is at a 6% gain, that's nearly catching it right at the bottom. I chose AAPL equity long (although we did have some option trades when it first moved) for a reason, I believe AAPL is going for a bear market rally or counter trend rally, there's no doubt after being down 45%, AAPL is in a bear market.

In any case, the non-leveraged position was chosen to be able to ride out a choppy trend that should see a nice, sharp rally as we have seen begin, I love bear market rallies. I do not think this is AAPL regaining its former glory, but a good bear market rally is a strong move so for now based on the charts which were beautiful, I'm sticking with it as this was the original plan, the expectation that there would be chop and draw down.

 If I were in an options trade (call), I'd feel differently, but this is why I didn't chose leverage for this position.

2 min chart

3 min chart- These don't look horrible, but AAPL looked really nice so it's a step down from where it was.

This 10 min chart is probably the most significant in the near term to keep an eye on, I have no illusions that AAPL will pullback during a market leg down, this 10 min chart can give us an idea of how much, right now it's just like a thread hanging out of a sweater, but things can move quickly.

Longer term charts and really what the position is based on look fine, like this 15 min leading positive.

You can go back and look at the psychological process of creating volume or supply and how and where it was accumulated, it's actually interesting, out entry was darn close to perfect, about 1% or so off from the bottom. The point being is this 2 hour chart shows the longer term potential and I think AAPL will end up quite a bit above the large triangle.

This is the trend in AAPL, from a 45% loss to a small capitulation moment and a basing process, again this base is no where near big enough for AAPL to reclaim its former glory, but to see a sharp counter trend , bear market rally, it's just the right size. I'll stick with AAPL.

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