In the June F_O_M_C meeting minutes released today we went from:
- About half of these participants indicated that it likely would be appropriate to end asset purchases late this year.
- SEVERAL ON FOMC SAW QE TAPERING LIKELY WARRANTED SOON
- MANY ON FOMC SAID LABOR GAINS NEEDED BEFORE QE TAPER
- FOMC SAW FISCAL POLICY RESTRAINING ECONOMIC GROWTH
- HALF OF THE FED INDICATED IT LIKELY WOULD BE APPROPRIATE TO END ASSET PURCHASES LATE THIS YEAR
- A FEW PARTICIPANTS INDICATED THAT THE COMMITTEE SHOULD SLOW OR STOP ITS PURCHASES AT THE JUNE MEETING
Then at the Q&A portion of the NBER Conference, Bernie had a much different tone....
Just because the Fed may begin tapering soon, interest rates will still be pinned at current ultra-low levels for a long time.
Bernanke said that the unemployment rate – a key indicator that will determine the future path of Fed monetary policy – probably understates the weakness in the U.S. labor market.
The onset of tapering should not be taken as a sign of an imminent rate hike
Two other points that Bernanke really drove home hard:
- The 6.5% unemployment threshold is not a trigger for rate hikes, and the Fed could still keep rates at basically zero for quite some time after the economy hits that level
- The rise in rates that have come about lately represent a tightening of financial conditions, and to the extent that this rate rise threatens the economy, it will be addressed.
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