Wednesday, July 10, 2013

MCP Update

For the kind of position MCP was intended to be, I still love it and am holding it long. This was never meant to be a trading position, this was meant to be a stock that could walk on its own two legs, a stock that went through the cycles and is near the end of a stage 1 base with stage 2 mark-up next. I'm a bit surprised to see it up today, but it looks like it is coming along well. Sometimes these lower priced stocks act more like the market should.

 On this 5-day chart you can see the end of stage 2 at the far left transitioning in to stage 3 (top) and of course stage 4 (decline) and back in to stage 1 (base) preparing to move to stage 2 (mark-up) where the easy money / trending trades are found. Most stocks go through this cycle and in every timeframe.

The change in character in MCP is very clear just looking at the price chart, this is why I like to start with longer term (5-day) charts, trends and character are clear.

On a 1-day MCP has been vacillating as part of the normal basing process, the least move was on volume, the gap was filled so it looks solid, today so far we are above resistance (too early to judge volume), but again it's not about a 1-day or 1 month move here, this is a great looking stock toward the end of a nice base.

 For now until it really starts to trend I'm just using the 1-day X-Over screen, you can see we are just shy of all 3 signals firing a long signal, just the custom indicator in the middle window needs to cross its moving average (blue), everything else is a go.

This is the daily chart, from distribution at stage 3 which is what stage 3 is, distribution/top, to a leading positive 1-day divergence which is impressive, we don't get to see too many of these anymore, at least not right now.

The 4 hour chart is perfectly in line and doing what it should be, with this leading positive divergence now, MCP "may" be getting ready to move to stage 2, you can see there wasn't the same leading positive on the last run which was just knocked down so MCP could be accumulated at lower prices.

I'm staying patient with this one and think it is probably going to be a big winner with very little maintenance.

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