Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Head Spinning

First, thank you for the emails, I think there's a lot of people that believe "Helicopter Ben" is starting to mean more than just the picture of cash flying out of the helicopter, it seems like many of you feel like his comments make you feel like your head is one of the rotors.

For the moment I'm going to be watching futures like a hawk, there's clearly a disparity in the ES model  where as some smart money assets don't seem to be buying the NEBR Q&A from Bernie after-hours.
This isn't a smoking gun to me, it's a curiosity for the moment.

What is more of what I'd call a real issue is credibility and that is typically found in the credit and bond markets.

I expected Bernie to say something to take the edge off the minutes, I mean "Some participants wanted to end all asset purchases right there at the June meeting"!?!

Bernie is the chairman, but he's not a dictator, there are 12 voting members. What strikes me is how Bernie's tone in tonight's Q&A is so far removed from almost anything said at the meeting 3 weeks ago, half the members indicated it would be appropriate to end asset purchases THIS YEAR, not slow them in to mid-2014. Although I make no argument that the minutes were highly ambiguous,  I would say Bernie's comments tonight seem so far removed from the minutes that it seems like they'd have to be psychopaths to have changed sentiment so quickly.

In other words, something doesn't pass the smell test.

For now I'm going to watch the futures, currencies, treasury futures, etc. and see what the market really thinks of all of this.

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