I talked about this in broad strokes last night and very specifically this afternoon. Take a look, it's really quite amazing as one thing moves the other and they all work together to "Pull the lever".
Remember the SPX last night, 1 PENNY from where the limit orders would be...
The SPY 1 min, so far no confirmation, but definitely hit those limit orders.
Take a look at the SPY volume on the move.
Again the SPY arbitrage pulling the lever even harder,
as I mentioned last night, HYG was an obvious culprit as it was closing red until the last candle of the day nearly as large as the day's entire range to close a +0.05%, but the point was the arbitrage value as HYG, TLT and VXX are the 3 assets used.
HYG I suspect made the actual move that lifted the SPY/market, unless it's clear on a minute chart, you'd probably need NANEX to confirm, but again, Credit leads.
The VIX Futures are part of the arbitrage, this is the range I sid would almost certainly (I said 80%) be broken to the downside before an upside reversal, the thing is it trades opposite the market so it would almost be forced to help in the arbitrage move, again probably only NANEX would have the data as to which was fired first, but with the SPY arbitrage being pushed all day, and expecting it last night based on HYG's last bar of the day, I'm pretty sure we know the answer.
This is the time to watch for a lot, the proof of the head fake, that will likely be seen in HYG distribution, VXX accumulation and market distribution and then the assets that are likely trades, again UVXY, FAZ, other stocks and ETFS.
I need to get to it, good thing I posted that email post as this happened just after. There
's a good chance there will be some very fast moving action and I may not be able to get all the charts I'd like to, out to you.
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