AAPL Update

This, for me anyway, is more of a "What to do with AAPL?"

I opened a 2/3rds full equity long in AAPL because I believe AAPL is starting a counter-trend rally, these are some of the strongest rallies you'll ever see (in a bear market, which AAPL is technically in). 

People often don't believe that a rally during a bear market can be stronger than a rally in a bull market, well look around at some and you'll see. The reasoning is simple, in a bear market rally the move HAS to be strong, no one will buy the move as their sentiment is already bearish unless the move seems to defy the laws of physics and make an incredibly strong move.

From there, Greed takes over (emotions), as in, "I already missed half of this move,".

The long equity AAPL position is a 4+% gain, but I'll be honest (and this is a great REASON TO KEEP THE KIND OF TRADE JOURNAL I ADVOCATE FOR) I tried to get  fancy and close a short in AAPL and just take the profits at the time up around $700 because I thought I could get back in at a better level. I probably could have, but one of those rare market events that isn't discounted occurred, specifically AAPL on Third Point's top 5 holdings one week and the next week gone, every hedge fund follows Dan Loeb's lead and they all tried to fit out the same door at the same time and AAPL saw a 45% drop.

 I'm trying to look at AAPL objectively, but if I'm honest, there's a chance that unconsciously there's a emotional trading scar over missing that move and I "could" be biassing my view toward not wanting to make the same mistake.

I say this is possible, not definite, this is just what happens with traders and that's why I advocate for a trading journal, you have to be honest with yourself.

In any case, I figure the most I have to lose is some near term drawdown, I don't think anything stops this AAPL counter trend rally, just as I said this week AAPL would outperform the market, it will continue to do so.

I have decided to hold AAPL long equity and I'll add to it to a full position on any pullback.

 15 min AAPL chart looks like a pullback is probable, but it is WAY stronger than most other assets.

30 min is leading positive, no damage at all so I think whatever "may" happen in AAPL, it is still making that upside move.

the 4 hour chart shows the size of the base in AAPL, it's huge so I'm guessing ...

(This is a positive 5-day chart) that AAPL moves at least to $the $550 area, with a properly position sized long equity position, I'm not worried about draw-down and I'm not worried about the trade failing, I'll wait AAPL out, it's not worth missing this move to try to get too fancy (that sounds a lot like the emotional scar from missing the last AAPL trade, but in looking at the charts, I don't see how AAPL can do much downside damage and the relative strength has been fantastic, if any stock can buck the market, it will be AAPL).

I would not start new longs here, I'd wait for the market to settle first and any possible pullback in AAPL.