Really despite price action, nothing in trends changed today at all.
Here are some example short/mid-term charts and the ES chain.
IWM 2 min intraday distribution in to higher prices... ? Higher? They're more or less at or below the open except for the closing move above resistance, still no confirmation even at a 2 min chart, looks like selling all day in to the IWM.
IWM 60 min
QQQ 2 min intraday, again no confirmation.
QQQ 15 min
SPY 3 min intraday/trend leading negative.
SPY 15 min.
ES intraday as I mentioned earlier needed to make a lower low, almost did earlier, it did near the close.
ES 5 min still leading negative as it was this morning pre-market.
ES 15 min leading negative so this should be a fairly sharp downside move.
ES 30 min is the same as this morning, it's where there's a transition between the negative and positive as it is in line.
ES 60 min strongly leading positive.
Essentially what the string of charts points to is the same thing expected starting with initial signals last Thursday.
Short term action today seemed like it was in a pin as the market stayed in the same area almost all day.
The 5 min is pointing to the move down represented by the 15 min Es chart, as starting soon as 5 min charts are leading negative.
Once we are through with the 15 min down trend, we have a much larger, more powerful up move that really started last week.
It's just typical market behavior, nothing moves in a line, there's too much money to make in making as many people wrong as possible.
In fact, very surprisingly to me... Our options tracking portfolio came in at
The rank out of 670 competing portfolios is 27, the monthly rank (as the month just started) is the exact same return and a rank of 26.
My point is this, early in the week I decided I wasn't going to be that active, in fact at first I didn't think any trading was worth the risk this week until we found 2 trades that looked decent, it was the +40% and +25% gains from those two (small) positions that put us in this rank.
So for hardly trading, not having any amazing triple digit gains and only 2 small trades, there were a lot of people standing in the place and were bull-dozed by the market this week.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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