It's All NFP from Here

I hope everyone had happy and safe 4th of July holiday.

So Futures have seen a pretty nice move indeed, from Wednesday's 1 p.m. (regular market closing hour) ES has moved from $1608.50 to a high put in just after the European open this morning (as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank both have come out sounding like a counter-balance to any F_E_D tapering talk , in other words sounding very dovish) of $1626.75. Since then we've lost some ground.

With low liquidity today as no one who makes under $100k on Wall Street is going to be working today, it will be the NFP at 8:30 that shapes trade unless it's a middle of the road number, consensus is $161k with a prior of 175k and a range of 145-200k.

Otherwise the market looks set to gap above all of this week's range, but I'm not sure how much I trust it, it will greatly depend on the NFP in a few minutes, although I'd caution against early assumptions based on low liquidity knee-jerk reactions.

Here's why I'm wondering if the move of the last day and a half is sustainable near term...

 ES 5 min from Wednesday's close doesn't look like it has much support left.

The same with the ES 15 min chart so there's been migration from in line to negative

The NASDAQ futures look the same as does R2K.

 NQ 5 min

NQ 15 min.

We'll know more shortly, but I wouldn't make early assumptions.