Friday, July 5, 2013

UVXY

To me it looks like (just from gut feel after having seen so many of these charts) that ES and the intraday SPY are losing 3C momentum.

I'm looking at some moves made in VXX/UVXY that are really predictable and some improvement, I'm not ready to pull the trigger on an options position, I have to look at the UVXY long (equity ) position and see if there's room there to add, if it makes sense, but what I will do is find the strike and expiration for a UVXY call and have them as well as the risk management/position size figured out in advance as we could move quickly from here.

On op-ex pins we tend to see the market move away from the pin and act as it wants to around 2:30 - 3 p.m. because most contracts are closed by that time so it wouldn't be surprising to start to see 3C intraday signals start changing right around now.

 SPY intraday 1 min starting to fall apart.

Notice I didn't draw the divergences on the chart, but rather the areas under it with red for negative and white for positive. I appreciate ALL the feedback I got about the new site (and even if I didn't write back, I read every one), so I'd like some feedback again. 

Are the charts easier to understand with me drawing in the divergences or just outlining the area like above?


ES 1 min, it basically needs to make a lower 3C low, the 5 min chart is just as negative as when posted earlier today.

The TICK could provide early warning, we'd need to see a move more volatile than the current channel, hopefully BEFORE it shows up in price.

 UVXY 2 min leading positive and as a new support range was formed intraday, it's not surprising at all that it was hit.

UVXY 15 min, this is still where I'd like to see a turn to the upside for a option (call) position, I would add to the UVXY long without that, as long as there's an obvious change from the pin to something uglier.

There is another potential support area that could be targeted for UVXY as we aren't far from it, just watch volume as these areas are hit, the object is to create supply / volume.

*As far as expiration for a call here, since this is a 15 min leading positive and longer, I'd go out to August if there's liquidity.

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