GOOG Position Update

I already started a short in GOOG as I think it has good potential, I'm open to adding to it, so long as the position is high probability/low risk.

This is yesterday's update for GOOG, you'll find a lot of the charts and what we were looking for to happen.

This is a position that I chose to phase in to, if I was interested in it and didn't have any, I'd have no problem taking something like an initial 1/3rd of the intended full size position (Again, risk management plans come first before any entry is made, we don't dollar cost average losers).

I need to take a closer look at the market, but I believe GOOG just put in the first half of what we call a "Crazy Ivan" shakeout, if so, then GOOg's tactical entry is very close, strategically it's already in the right area with the right signals.

 15 min chart...

Head fake moves are to create some movement, they often hit stops or breakout highs that they know retail technical traders will buy, this gives them the volume they need to get in to position, that's the main thing about head fake moves, we are turning a jet ski on positions, they are turning an oil tanker and need to create volume at advantageous prices to get in or out of positions.

The first move took out stops as you can see by volume, the most recent move 30 minutes ago took out another level of stops because they are so predictable as to where they will place them and it you put your order on the books (limit), there's a good chance they see yours and where everyone else has congregated, usually at support/resistance , moving averages, price pattern breakouts or breakdowns and popular moving averages like 50 and 200.

Look at yesterday's post linked above and you'll see the price level I wanted to see hit before I'd consider adding to GOOG short, that area was tagged already. The 4 hour relative negative positive at the recent new high is the exact reason I wanted to see price move there, I had a good feeling it would be sold/distributed in to the move making an ideal area to enter your own position as it gives you a great entry and a lot less risk.

 The 30 min chart, we already went through this yesterday, the most recent run to new highs has had no real support and has actually been sold or shorted in to (they both come across the tapes as sales) higher prices as is their custom.

Right at the last stop run we have a 15 min positive, this means there's a good chance GOOG makes another run to the upside and that's where we can likely find a high probability/low risk position.

If you view GOOG as a long term trade and you have good risk management and decent risk tolerance, I'd say entering GOOG short here may not be the ideal timing, but you are in and the probabilities are extremely high that in 6 months or a year, GOOG will be significantly lower.

Remember you are responsible for paying any dividends that come due while you are short the stock, luckily GOOG has none.

 The 2 min intraday also looks like a little stop run was exact;y what was going on this afternoon, which would set up (most likely) a limit run on the upside, consider they are selling in to strength, that's also the highest probability/lowest risk entry.

$910-$911 or greater would be an ideal area to enter GOOG short, but of course entering here at $907 really isn't that big of a difference, about half of a percent.

I'll set alerts looking for the move, I would consider having GOOG on your radar, even if it is only a handful of shares, it's the percentage move, not how many shares you control, that counts.