Thursday, July 18, 2013

NASDAQ 100 Short

If you're not using options which in this case I prefer not to, then you can always use a 2 (QID) or 3x (SQQQ) leveraged ETF. I do prefer some leverage until I see what's going on in the initial move's relative performance, sector rotation, etc. then I prefer a straight equity short for this reason, Making More Than 100 % In A Short.

As for the Averages, they can give good, broad coverage, the DIA short or (SDOW 3x leveraged bear Dow-30) has large cap exposure.

The QQQ (QID 2x short the QQQ or SQQQ 3x short the QQQ) gives you a lot of tech so be careful about being long TECS and SQQQ at the same time, that's a lot of tech exposure.

SPY or SDS (2x short SPX) or SPXU 3x short the S&P 500 gives you good, broad overall coverage, some large cap, some financial. I'd be careful with something like long FAZ and long SPXU as the SPX has about 22% of its weight in Financials.

The IWM short or TWM long (2x short the Russell 2000) or SRTY (3x short the Russell 2000) gives you broad market coverage, this also tends to lead risk on or risk off moves, it probably will be one of the earlier  better performing (on a relative basis) shorts.

As far as the one I like most RIGHT now, if I had to pick one right now and not look at it for a couple of weeks, it would probably be the NASDAQ 100 short, I'd choose the 3x leveraged SQQQ for the initial move down and then switch to a more specific short.

The overall market updates can act as an entry, or if you have decent risk management and don't get emotional over day to day or intraday moves, then I think SQQQ long could be bought here.

There's a very good chance of a head fake move below the recent range at least on an intraday basis, but if I'm really looking at the big picture, I'd probably rather sit through a little "possible or probable draw down, especially if I've spent some time to set up good risk management with an initially wider stop, rather than missing out on the bigger picture). I try to giver you the best of both, but this looks so close I'd be remiss not to mention it.

SQQQ 3 short the NASDAQ 1000 (long)
 The intraday 2 min chart is in a good overall leading positive divergence so I think near term timing is excellent.

The only reason I'd suspect an intraday head fake move is for the very reasons in the two articles I wrote and posted on the member's site, the head fake acts as a charges or capacitor to get a move jump started.

 Note the 15 min leading  positive, but also the nice "Rounding bottom", that is the reversal process. A head fake move would be below that to hit the stops.

I would consider phasing in also if you don't have short exposure and are looking to start some, but you must make phasing in at potentially lower prices (this is the idea) part of your risk management before you enter. The idea is you have some coverage, but if we get a head fake, you get a better entry level with better timing, as I said, It must be part of your risk management plan before you enter the trade, not a reaction to a losing trade.


 This 15 min leading positive is one of the reasons I don't mind holding some of the short exposure already added, this suggests a very large upside move for SQQQ and down for the Q's / market.

 The 30 min chart's trend confirmation and positive divergence just make this a stronger signal

The same with the 60 min chart.

Overall, I'd want to have some exposure at this point, but a head fake move is seen about 80% of the time in a reversal so I keep a wide stop, my position sizing allows to add at a lower price (not a lot, but enough to shakeout any current longs ).


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