Thursday, July 18, 2013

Opening Indications: Charts

Here's what the charts are looking like on the opening move. There are negative intraday divergences starting, giving the look of a little early exhaustion, but until they cross from 1 min to 2 min charts, the probabilities are 50/50 between a consolidation or a price correction.


 DIA 1 min,

IWM 1 min

QQQ 1 min is still in line

SPY 1 min has the start of an intraday negative divergence.

If the divergence moves to the 2 min charts than a pullback becomes much more likely, if it migrates to the 3 and 5 min charts, then we are looking at something altogether different from just intraday.

The Treasury pullback is what was seen yesterday in the 3C charts so not surprising and with HYG up, and VXX down, that's a very positive SPY arbitrage, however as mentioned, HYG is starting to show some early cracks. Junk Credit that trade exactly or a LOT like HYG is seeing very strong distribution, however it is not an arbitrage asset for the algos, but this should give you some idea of the tone in credit and the high probability HYG is just being used intraday "pulling the levers" as a positive arbitrage signal.


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