Friday, August 2, 2013

It was a fairly quiet overnight session, except German economists see another Greek debt holder haircut of 50% as unavoidable.

It might not have been the best day for banks either as, 
  • Bank of America said federal and state agencies plan to press more civil claims tied to mortgage and debt offerings, signaling the firm faces another round of legal battles tied to home loans and underwriting
  • U.S. investigators have uncovered evidence that banks reaped millions of dollars in trading profits at the expense of companies and pension funds by manipulating a benchmark for interest-rate derivatives
Almost as a chorus, first Apollo then Fortress and BlackRock Private Equity funds all said this is the time to sell investments, not make new ones, too much uncertainty has been forced in to the market, there's the word the market hates, "Uncertainty".

Then comes the Non-Farm Payrolls miss of 162k vs consensus of 185k (gain) with June revised lower to 188k and the UE rate drops from 7.5 to 7.4, as long as people keep exiting the workforce, we can have higher unemployment with a lower rate.

The surprise was in the market reaction...

ES after being flat all night at 1703-ish dropped the most of the overnight session below 1700 to 1696 initially. However, gold shot up, the market reaction was certainly not what I would have expected, except this may have had some role...

The $USD dropped like a rock, taking the USD/JPY carry that was driving the market higher straight down too.

$USDX's reaction.

Between credit yesterday, private equity panic setting today, perhaps credit was on to something yesterday.

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