Friday, August 2, 2013

Leading Indicators...


 This is HYG, yesterday I showed you the charts that the USD/JPY which was leading the market was going to break down and I suggested they'd use HYG to take its place, look at HYG today vs the SPX in green, nearly tick for tick.

 This is unusual, TLT (Treasuries or the Flight to Safety Trade) moving up with the SPX in green today, the only reason I can think of that there would be a risk off and a risk on asset moving together is an op-ex pin, either than or smart money is doing something much different than retail, but I think the first scenario is more likely.

 Institutional sentiment is off from the SPX, especially as we near the close.

This was one of the examples I used to demonstrate how the market was being led by the USD/JPY yesterday (USD long./JPY short). Above is the USD, yesterday it was nearly perfectly in line with the SPX, or rather the SPX with it as the currency pair was the leader.

The Yen would have to move down, to make it easier to see I inverted the scale of the SPX in green, yesterday they moved perfectly, today as I said they would yesterday, the USD/JPY fell out and you can see that today, HYG replaced them as expected with VXX to make up for TLT's strength.

 Yields (red) are a magnet for equities (green), they ran together earlier this week, look at today, that's a magnet pulling on the SPX to the downside.

Also commodities as a risk asset were supportive of the SPX, what happened today?

It seems it's harder and harder to keep the market afloat, you look at today and think, "It's green", it should be up well over 1% on follow through of a breakout north of $1700.


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