Volatility and Credit

This isn't a comprehensive post on either, just changes today, although I need to take a more comprehensive look at Leading Indicators, there have just been so many individual assets that I've been keeping my eye on or throwing out there.

 You know how I feel about TLT, this is chart based, evidence based. If I had to make an argument as to why I like TLT , I'd come up with the normal arguments that anyone with a little experience would make.

The fact is, some of my best, biggest trades made no sense to me at all. When I saw accumulation in the $USD and there was no comprehensible reason for it to rise, I took the signal seriously, it went higher and months later the Treasury and F_E_D talked about and made moves to create a strong dollar policy.

When I called the top of the massive BushII (W.) era oil run within a week while Cramer was telling everyone to buy, I didn't have a fundamental arguement why. I'm far from the smartest guy in the room, I'm not competing with Wall St. based on my brains, look at what happened to LTCM with two Nobel Prize Winners in economics and they went down the tubes in less than a year.

I'm following the signs of underlying money flows, by the time any of us understand why, all the money will have been made.

So TLT you've seen the charts, you know why.

As for the HYG bump today that was predicted yesterday, here's how that's going...

 HYG is seeing pretty stiff intraday negative diverences this afternoon.

 The last big 2 min leading negative led to the big gap down yesterday, it's getting a bit nasty today as well.

The same chart as above just zoomed in to intraday, it looks like HYG/Credit market support is being pulled.

HYG 3 min, the point being is the divergence is migrating through longer charts meaning it's getting stronger.

VIX Futures...

 This is the 5 min VIX Futures chart, not VXX, the futures, we already had an enormous positive divergence, today just added to the stronger leading positive in a flat range where we most often see this activity.

 VXX 5 min has added a ton on the upside leading positive today and in a flat range.

 The inverse of VXX which is managed by a totally different company is confirming with the exact opposite, leading negative signal.

I feel pretty good with today's VXX call position.