These aren't any outstanding Leading Indications, but there are some oddballs, nothing that would make me trim any of the core shorts which just keep getting better and better, but they are enough to keep this bounce in mind, although the further the market goes down, the harder it will be to change sentiment as well as structural things like margin call selling, etc.
Sentiment jumped up on that washout move lower which was strange to see, this is not retail sentiment.
This is VXX (VIX futures) with the SPX inverted (green) to see how VXX is performing vs the SPX, I'd expect to see protection heavily bid and the blue line way above the green, but it's not, it's almost as if this were any normal "nothing doing" day.
Short term VXX 3C charts are not only stuck, they are falling out of line.
The 5 min is negative on a relative basis which again is odd to see given the market price action.
TLT is acting like the SPX which is odd because they typically have an inverse relationship, by the way, I'll feature TLT, it is doing what I expected and may make for a nice long term position.
There's a large gap between Yields and the SPX, usually the SPX is attracted to Yields.
This is just today's damage.
Finally look at the way commodities (brown) have acted as a leading indicator recently.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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