Monday, August 19, 2013

TLT, the 30 Year, 10 Year and Rising Rates

Interest rates move opposite the treasury they are connected to so assume the 10-year Treasury drops tomorrow, yields or interest rates will generally be higher, this is a trend that has been going on at least since the end of April. Ever wonder why 60% of homes purchased last month were all cash, yet mortgage rates continue to rise despite a total lack of demand?

That's because just about every interest rate out there from CD's money markets, car loans, home loans, etc. are calculated or have the 10 year's yield near the center of importance. I wish I could tell you how this ends, but I think it ends with brute force of some kind in the way of intervention, we can't have a struggling economy seeing rising rates everywhere, Obama is aware of it, he's made mention in a round-bout kind of way this weekend.


The only thing I've said for a long time now is there seems to be something special going ion in TLT, the 20+ year Treasury bond fund, this has been going on for some time, even before it dropped which we predicted and also predicted it would be a huge help to the market in making new highs which it did.

I love these mysteries when something shows up in a very strong way in 3C and there seems to be no plausible reason, then price moves in your favor and months later you find out why. What I can't explain is why the 10 year looks so bad next to TLT and the 30 year futures.

Let me just put up the charts and remind you that I've expected treasuries to come down the last  week+ (the next leg down), but I've also expected to see positive divergences in TLT which I'm hoping will open a door to a great opportunity at a great price.

Why the 10 year looks so different is a mystery, but look at TLT and the 30 year and tell me that it doesn't seem as if, SOMEONE KNOWS SOMETHING". With this kind of size, I'm guessing PIMCO.

I'm sure you'll notice how TLT and the 30 year Treasuries look the same and the 10 year look very different, I've been pointing this out for about 2 weeks now, I have no idea why, but I know which one I like better as I already have a core long opened in TLT.


TLT 20+ year Treasury Bond Fund
 1 min

3 min

5 min

10 min

30 min

60 min

4 hour

The 30 year Treasury Futures
 15 min

30 min

60 min

4 hour

 The 10-year Treasury Futures - note the very different tone through the 4 timeframes.

 15 min

30 min

60 min

4 hour

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